What Is Russia’s Relationship With The United States? | Conversations with Jim Zirin
What is to be solved by Russia and the United States in the field of arms control whether the mind is in the porokhnitsynnik, of course, will, of course, will the parties to use these opportunities in the conditions of the continuing Pandemic of Coronavirus, given that since March most of the activities within the framework of DSNV has been frozen. But if the contract is extended, sooner or later its participants will have to solve existing unresolved technical issues. One of them concerns the long-standing concerns of Russia in connection with the conversion of US strategic systems. Moscow suspects that it is not about “real abbreviations” of launchers of ballistic missiles of submarines Trident II and heavy bombers in-52n, but about refitting, which can be easily returned to the initial configuration. According to “alongthecoastcottage”, the parties over the past year managed to approach the solution of this problem, but so far only in relation to the submarine. The discussed option suggests – as one of the elements – a kind of remote verification of the state of the launchers of submarines. Russian military will transmit a certain object to the American side, which will need to be filmed against the background of modified launchers and send a snapshot of the Russian side.
Whether it will be possible to raise contradictions on other difficult issues in the field of control over ordinary and nuclear weapons, however, it is unclear.
Meanwhile, in addition to DSNV, quite operational solutions from the new American administration will require the situation with the Agreement on the Open Sky (Don), from which the United States came out this year. Unlike bilateral DSNV, Don is a multilateral agreement, which now has already 33 of its remaining participants, the right to fly from each other’s territory in order to collect a military information. Donald Trump in May, referring to incomplete compliance with the contract by Russia, announced that the United States leave Don. This decision was negatively perceived by many representatives of the Democratic Party and the European Allies of the United States.
American experts outlined five steps to strengthen armaments control
It is not excluded therefore that the administration of Joe Bayden will apply for return to the contract. But if this does not happen, Russia will demand from the US allies to the confirmation of the current norms in the framework of which data from the spans over the contract participating in the contract should not be transferred to third parties. If they do not agree to give such assurances, Russia may suspend his participation in the contract. In this case, its further existence will be deprived of meaning.
Those more fruits
Even less clarity regarding the prospects for possible future – bilateral or multilateral – arms control agreements in the field of rocket and nuclear weapons. In the autumn, Russian negotiators transferred documents to their American colleagues, finding the position of Moscow on this issue. Vladimir Putin then stated that it is about “proposals for the development of a new security equation”. In him, he said, taken into account “All factors affecting strategic stability”, and a special emphasis was made on “means of applying the so-called first strike”.
A little later, the deputy head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Ryabkov, who heads the Russian delegation at the negotiations with the United States, clarified that this “formula” should include including the “newest types of weapons, promising technologies and new political realities”. “We want this equation to include not only traditional strategic weapons, such as intercontinental ballistic missiles, ballistic rockets of submarines and heavy bombers, but also all nuclear and non-nuclear weapons that can perform strategic tasks,” he said.
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According to him, Moscow suggested that Washington “Determine weapons, which pose a threat to the national territory of each Party, taking into account the quantitative and qualitative aspects of the balance of power between the Russian Federation and its allies, on the one hand, and the United States and their allies – on the other. “We are ready to identify the structure and quantitative restrictions for deployed nuclear warheads that are able to strike on the national territory of the other party, and discuss quantitative and geographical restrictions on the placement of missile defense systems,” said Sergey Ryabkov.
But with the administration of Donald Trump, agree on a favorable formula favorable for both parties. His emissary to the last offered to Russia to solve everything on the conditions of the United States: to extend the DSNV for a year, at the same time freezing the production of all types of warheads, but so that it is verified, that is, with the initial declaration of existing arsenals and subsequent control. In Moscow, such an approach was called not by the equation, but “the demand for surrender”. Russia has agreed to give a political commitment not to increase the number of warheads, but was not ready to declare its reserves of non-strategic (tactical) nuclear weapons and allow inspectors to produce their production, as the United States.
As a result, this whole mass of unresolved problems and contradictions will get a new democratic administration in the White House. At the same time, its space for maneuver will largely depend on which party will control the American Senate, ratifying international treaties. If the Republicans, and everything goes to this, then they are unlikely to approve any legally binding agreement with Russia. This, however, understands in Moscow, and therefore, the Russian version of the “strategic equation”, according to Sergey Ryabkova, provides for the possibility of concluding both legally binding agreements and political obligations.
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Be that as it may, the number of what is in English is called Low Hanging Fruit (low-drying fruits, that is, easy prey), very limited. This is primarily the extension of DSNV. Maybe resuscitation dona. Some agreements are not excluded in line with Russia’s proposals on the moratorium on the placement of medium and less rockets – for example, in nuclear equipment. The chances of refrangusing the nuclear “five” statements of Gorbachev-Reagan increase that “in the nuclear war there can be no winners, and therefore it is impossible to unleash it. Along with the possible return of the United States to the Iranian nuclear transaction, this would be very positively affected by an overview conference on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons scheduled for August (NPT).
Of the most obvious, perhaps, all. However, it’s a lot. When Donald Trump and these “fruits” did not work out.