The second package of federal assistance will return to the business part of the income taxes and the property of the supervised defense policy clearly does not intend to "fill up" the upcoming losses of the economy with money: the national welfare fund in discussions is almost not mentioned (its function is to act as a component of the budgetary mechanism), the total cost of the first package Governments clearly does not exceed 10-15% of the "anticoronevirus" fund of the Ministry of Finance, most likely – much less. Recall, the main initiatives of the first packet are emergency support for small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) through deferred tax payments and WEBA guarantees, as well as through preferential loans. Either try to influence the aggregate demand neither the White House, nor the Central Bank still intend to – according to the results of the coronavir epidemic, it is expected rather "Chinese" than the "European" scenario of post-crisis recovery, to which, given a fairly strong degree of nationalization (and manageability through state finances) Economic activity, there are reson. At the same time, apparently, to May-June, the Russian government will have an order of magnitude large among comparable countries reserves to support the economy, besides in a more transparent situation. Second package measures have a clearly pronounced regional accent.
Mikhail Mishoustin called the first measure Support for regional budgets, In the federal budget laid 171 billion rubles. funds for restructuring of budget loans and the loss of regions from revenge. Selfless taxes by regions (reminding them are key to income taxes, property taxes; for municipalities – NDFL). Income tax and property taxes are 25.9% of the income of the budget system of the Russian Federation, most of their regional, in the amount of this more than 5 trillion rubles. In 2019, the payments of 2020 are obviously higher – partly they can be considered as a reserve of assistance. So, the Prime Minister, municipalities and regions declared to reduce property taxes for landlords in exchange for a decrease in rental rates or postponement of SMEs.
Measures to counteract the epidemic, First of all, the introduced self-insulation regimes can be considered as Force Majeure, This is confirmed by the government and, apparently, will be entered into regulations. The regions themselves, primarily Moscow, have already involved rental benefits in supporting SMEs, in the amount of federal and regional lease discounts in 2020 – about 20 billion rubles., For the scheme "Discounts for taxes for rental discounts", the size apparently will be several times more.
As Vladimir Putin held a meeting with government members in remote mode
In the case of larger business in the second package, taxes will also be involved, but not property, but for profit. As the Prime Minister stated, the list of system-forming companies at the federal level is formed – these are 650 companies and up to 4 thousand. their subsidiaries and dependent structures. For them, the accounting of expenses for sanitary and epidemiological measures when calculating income tax. If these costs are understood quite widely, the "self-help" of companies can be quite effective. In relation to systemic, apparently, the ban on bankruptcy will act (it, according to Interfax, is initiated by the Ministry of Economy, however, for the part of the list, the prohibition is valid for other grounds). The White House also promised to make decisions about the transfer by agreement with the State Duma of the time of entry into force of the most "cost" laws – the list is still incomprehensible.
SME as the main source of unstable employment is now bothering the government more than large companies.
So, the government intends to create a special procedure for purchases from SMEs of companies with stateship, will be prohibited from disabling SMEs from utilities, temporarily canceled fines, they will automatically extend all licenses and permits. What is the case in employment shows and announced on April 1 idea to extend the SME support scheme for individual socially oriented non-commercial organizations (NPOs). It is still impossible to predict what part of the employment in SMEs will destroy anti-epidemic restrictions. The calculations of "Business Russia" suggest an increase in unemployment only in Moscow (in February almost zero) by 0.5-1 million people (that is, up to 15% of the economically active population), the experience of Israel, introduced several two-three quarantine measures from the Russian Federation The week earlier shows the growth of unemployment with 3.9% in February to 24% in March – however, most of the new unemployed there is not dismissed, but is in unpaid leave. On the scale of Russia, we can go, respectively, extremely about 10 million new unemployed and also extremely on peak unemployment at the level of 12-18%: the historical peak will be achieved in 1999, this is 13%, but it was then about the constant, and not short-term unemployment. Here the main idea of the government is to "extinguish" dismissal in viable SMEs with preferential loans for payout payments; Reserve Guarantees VEB.RF for these purposes for 2020 – 150 billion rubles. At the same time, according to "alongthecoastcottage", the measures for tax delays and installments will be significantly wider than the SME sphere, and installments themselves in a number of cases longer than it is expected now – the term of up to five years is discussed.
Moscow offered a special support in the Moscow Innovation Cluster
Most of the total expenses on anti-crisis measures, however, not yet painted by the government, And it is clear why: the president and government on April 1, de facto began to discuss the contents of the third (or at least the future) of the economy support package. Almost the first and part of the second package – delay: By the fly-autumn 2020, at least a small business (and at least surviving) will be returned to the need to pay taxes. Vladimir Putin offered now to think about the restructuring of these payments. Even if the situation with the coronavirus epidemic and epidemic restrictions in Russia will develop on the conventional "Chinese" scenario, the instantaneous economic recovery will not happen. So far, economists are quite optimistic, expected (for example, in the consensus forecast "Interfax" – see. The same page) Spoon of GDP of the Russian Federation in 2020 (super-suicide oil plus pandemic) by only 1.5%. But even this modest figure for the world challenges will surely destroy the profits of those who have been in 2020, and eliminates those who did not have them.