Rospotrebnadzor reiterates Russians to refrain on weekends from picnics and companies "I would like to ask not to relax" in the past few days in Moscow, where the situation with Coronavirus is still the most severe (50,646 cases of infection, the increase in the last 2420 cases), the clear and sunny weather. Although most of the pleasure zones and parks are closed in the capital, people on the streets on Wednesday were relatively many: according to Yandex, the self-isolation index at 15:00 am on April 29 was 2.8. This is a little less than the day before at the same time – 2.9. The indicator is calculated on data on the use of various applications and Yandex services.
Climbing on plateau
Recall, serious tightening of restrictive measures and the mandatory regime of self-insulation for all, and not only the elderly and chronic diseases, introduced in Moscow from March 30. The reasons for such actions of the city authorities could be the last weekend of March, presented to Muscovites warm and dry weather. Then, despite the recommendations, not to leave without an extreme need for their homes, many videos appeared on the Internet, as Muscovites rest "on kebabs" in the parks, for example in Silver Bor, Losina Island, in the Park "Ostankino", in the coastal area of the Yauza River. As of March 30, there were 1226 confirmed cases of infection in Moscow.
Since then, the number of cases in the capital has grown steadily, and in the first half of April, the rate of daily growth of the number of confirmed infections. This indicator has reached a peak on April 19 at a level of more than 3,500 cases. After that, the number of new cases has never exceeded 3100, which gave the foundation to doctors and officials to build assumptions about the emergence of the epidemic curve on the so-called plateau when the increase in the number of infected ceases.
However, against the background of slowing the daily growth of the number of confirmed infections, their total number in Moscow has increased by more than 58%.
The increase in the number of infection puts the city health system before the need to create all new infectious beds in hospitals and medical centers; On Tuesday, Moscow City Hall also confirmed the intention to deploy temporary hospitals.
As explained "Kommersant" Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin, a kainy fund in Moscow is formed both taking into account urban hospitals and with the participation of federal and private medical institutions. "We also decided that the fogging of patients can be placed in temporary medical hospitals under construction under major clinical institutions," said Mr. Sobyanin. According to him, it was decided to prepare for the deployment of temporary hospitals with a capacity of 10 thousand. Cotek. The actual use of them will depend on the dynamics of the development of the coronavirus epidemic.
"Strengthened patrol brigades"
At the same time, the share of Moscow is reduced in all-Russian infection statistics: on April 29, 99,399 cases were confirmed in Russia (+5841 per day), of which 51% falls on the capital.
Note that with an intense increase in the number of confirmed infections, the Moscow region is facing, where part of the residents of the capital will go to the upcoming non-working days. If on March 30, 119 cases of infection were registered in the Moscow region, then on April 29 there are already 10 917.
However, the governor of the Moscow region Andrei Vorobyov suggested on Wednesday in an interview with Russia 1 TV channel that the increase in the number of infected slows down: "We came out on the plateau, probably, this is a plateau. Regarding growth – it is 5-7% (per day.- "alongthecoastcottage"). I think we will stand on it for some time, then the decline will continue ".
At the same time, Mr. Vorobiev called on the inhabitants of the region not to violate the regime of self-insulation under the fear of administrative penalties: "If you could give (violators.- "alongthecoastcottage") one place, it would be better to give. Especially those who do not understand young people. But we can not do this, so there is a COAP ". Mr. Vorobyev thanked for the vigilance of citizens who inform the violations of self-insulation to the authorities. On holidays in the region "there will be reinforced patrol brigades," Governor warned.- I would like to ask again not to relax ".
In line for the opening
On the eve, Vladimir Putin extended non-working days in Russia until May 11. In Moscow and the Moscow region, all restrictive measures will be operated at least to this day, including compulsory self-insulation. The Covid-19 coronavirus epidemic date in Russia in the Kremlin is not predicted yet, but the participants of the round table on EIC, among which were both political scientists and epidemiologists, agreed that the release from quarantine would be phased and will not happen simultaneously in all regions. Political analyst Gleb Kuznetsov suggests that the Russian authorities will take the basis of world experience. According to him, countries such as Spain and Italy, primarily focused on population density: more urbanized territories come out of quarantine later less inhabited. Political analyst is confident that Russia will go on this path, and therefore Moscow "will open" by one of the last.
According to the main freelance epidemiologist of the Ministry of Health, Professor Nicholas Brico, the introduced restrictive measures in the capital helped prevent "exposiveness" in the spread of the virus and reduce the burden on health care. Mortality from coronavirus compared to other countries relative to low (972 fatal outcome on April 29), but all the parameters of the epidemic will need to evaluate after the May holidays, the expert believes. Deputy Director of the St. Petersburg Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology named after Pasteur Alexander Semenov believes that the main criterion in the forecast of the epidemic development is a decrease in or an increase in the number of infected.
If any of the stages of removal of quarantine will be wrapped with an increase in the number of ills in any region, the authorities will roll back the situation back, says Mr. Semenov.
In Eisi, they were reminded of deferred in connection with the all-Russian vote on constitutional amendments: according to the head of the Department of Strategic Studies, Ecych Ekaterina Sokolova, if the epidemic will occur by the end of May, the vote will be held in July. Previously, the sources of "alongthecoastcottage" reported that two dates were discussed as possible: June 24 and July 8. Epidemiologists invited to Ecytmen estimated this forecast as likely, but noted that when voting, most likely, it will still have to comply with physicians recommended by doctors.