The participating countries continue negotiations on the creation of the Restoring Fund Economy Economist decides how to help the Cellpenpomnian himself, last week the European Union launched a program of lending to states and companies as part of a package of emergency measures for € 540 billion – this plan for supporting the European economy has become a real breakthrough, to coordinate it at the level Finance Ministers of the participating countries managed back in early April. "Until recently, € 540 billion – it was the only amount that the supranational structures of the European Union was announced and the allocation of which was made the final decision. € 100 billion from them should be allocated to the fight against unemployment, "explained to the" Kommersant "Associate Professor of MGIMO, the regional monetary and financial relations department of the Global Economic Problems and Foreign Economic Policy of IMEMO RAS Elena Sidorova.
Within two and a half years, in addition to these € 100 billion from the European Commission (at the expense of which, in particular, they will help self-employed and companies that are trying to avoid abbreviations) more € 200 billion allocated by the European Investment Bank will go to loans for small and medium enterprises, € 240 billion will be invested in the health sector through the European Stabilization Mechanism. EU member states that have used the loan of the EU Stabilization Fund and sent funds to the prevention and treatment of coronavirus, will be able to return money for ten years.
The new target fund in the amount of € 750 billion should, in turn, provide not emergency, but long-term financial support.
"The uniqueness of the new proposal of the European Commission is that it is associated with the EU's total budget, and for many EU countries, this is an unloved and problematic topic: it turns out that some countries are forever invested in the overall budget, and others – more from it. The general budget among EU countries has existed since 1957, but until recently, the countries contributed to it a little more than 1% of gross national income. The new Multi-Year EU Financial Program on 2021-2027 is being discussed, and there already, taking into account "Brexita" And other calls was the idea of this ceiling a bit to raise a bit, despite the fact that so far, any such offer has stumbled into a powerful national rebuff every time, "says Elena Sidorova.
Epidemic will take 4,6% of world GDP in 2020
Indeed, agree on the procedure for financing the EU leaders, according to the Reuters agency, previously tried in April – however, the details still failed to agree. According to the executive vice president of the European Commission Valdis Dombrovskis, the four main recipients of support will be Italy, Spain, Poland and Greece. It is not surprising that during the preliminary consultation, the idea of "hanging" on the European Union, the total debt came up to the confrontation: four countries, nicknamed "fucking" – the Netherlands, Austria, Sweden and Denmark – during the preliminary consultations made a proposal to abandon grants (that is, free allocating means), and to issue funds from the fund only in the form of loans.
"This is four among a dozen EU countries whose contributions to the budget more than the amount they receive from the EU budget – Mrs. Sidorova notes.- and perhaps they fear that the European Commission once lifting the total budget ceiling to 2%, then he does not want to lower it. However, given all cautions by the European Commission, it can be assumed that the concerns of the authorities of these countries are associated not so much with the real risk of increasing contributions, as with the idea that taxpayers this scheme will not understand and do not vote for them again. ".
Last week, the Government of Finland refused to support the plan in its current form.
As Financial Times notes, the dissatisfaction of some participating countries causes the criteria for which countries will be able to receive financial support: this is a common and pillible volume of GDP, as well as unemployment rate in 2015-2019 – that is, indicators not related directly with a pandemic. Plan refinement required in Belgium, Ireland, Lithuania and Hungary.
According to Elena Sidorova, in the European Commission, they understand how tired of expanding the overall budget – mainly due to national contributions. "Therefore, this time the European Commission, although it offers to formally lift the ceiling to 2% of gross national income, but, first, it proposes to do it temporarily, and secondly, the real expenses of countries on contributions do not increase, but to take loans in foreign markets under Guarantees of the European Commission on the most favorable terms. That is, Brussels actually says: this money will not be collected personally from everyone, this is what we do in foreign markets under the guarantee of the European Union, "she notes. "It is noteworthy that all these initiatives, the European Commission links not just with the fight against the crisis, but with the long-term prospects for the development of the European Union: the construction of a green economy, the economy of the full cycle and other purposes," Elena Sidorova emphasizes.
The expert also recalled that the EU budget is formed both from the direct contributions from the participating countries and from European supranational sources, one of them is planned to return borrowing. And if you spend the funds planned in 2021-2024, then return – only from 2028 to 2058 and so that, as emphasized in the European Commission, the severity of payments did not lie on the shoulders of the member countries, but fell on new supranational income (including Due to exports from trading in the emission of greenhouse gases or pan-European tax on large high-tech companies of the digital industry with a turnover of more than € 750 million).
"The fact that these funds come from the budget of the EU is a fundamentally new thing, and this is a manifestation of the solidarity of the European Union, while earlier for such a mechanism, some countries looked with suspicion, especially in the north of Europe. Some resistance persists, but it is no longer concerned about the conceptual side of this fund, but the conditions and modality of these funds. These issues are resolved through negotiations, "Ambassador of Italy in Moscow has assured journalists in Moscow Turkale. "Thus, the situation that could hardly lead to the existential crisis of the European Union turned out that the EU countries, including due to the political foresight of some leaders, found the strength to take a step forward," the diplomat notes.
Now the future of the Recovery Fund, as well as the next EU budget for 2021-2027 the leaders of the European Union countries will discuss on the online summit on June 19.
"Chairman of the European Council, following consultations, will hold a European Council on June 19 through video conferencing. The agenda is a long-term financial plan and a recovery fund, "they were announced in advance in Brussels. As expected, the summit next after him will be held in full-time format – it is where the final decision may be made at the level of EU leaders, and subject to unanimous support of the project to agree to national parliaments and the European Parliament.