China GDP growth will likely fall to 4% due to coronavirus: Expert
Last year, GDP decreased by family dissimilarity, the time is still unexpectedly a good result, most likely is due to the improvement of GDP internally dynamics in 2020, since according to January-September data, the economy decreased by 3.4% and, based on the current speakers. , in the fourth quarter, the decline was to slow down to 2.5%. At the same time, judging by the weak dynamics of private consumption (see. “alongthecoastcottage” of January 28) and a sharp compression of pure exports at the end of the year (see. “alongthecoastcottage” of January 27), it seems unlikely. “In general, the dynamics of the industry in the fourth quarter of 2020 held the indicators of GDP from deterioration, but further recovery in the first quarter of 2021 will be slower,” says Dmitry Field of Loco-Invest.
Dynamics of elements of the use of GDP, at constant prices,% year by year
|Gross domestic product||2||-3,1|
|End consumption costs||2.9||-5,2|
|– public administrations||four||2,4|
|– non-profit organizations serving household||2.5||-0,2|
|including the gross accumulation of fixed capital||1.5||-6,2|
Alexander Isakov from VTB-Capital believes that the GDP indicator that turned out to be better than expectations in 2020, and a recent increase in the economic growth assessment of up to 2% in 2019 may indicate that the basic potential growth of the Russian economy can be estimated at 2%, and not 1.5%, as was customary to be considered for 2020. However, Oleg Zapov from the Institute of Research and Examination of VEB does not exclude that with the advent of actual data from small and medium-sized businesses Evaluation of GDP dynamics in 2020 may worse. “Despite the fact that the figure of 3.1% can still be adjusted both up and down after analyzing the incoming data, it is already obvious that Russia has passed 2020 better than most other major economies,” the deputy head of the Ministry of Economy Polina Kryuchkova, adding that this was the measures to support the government of citizens and business, relaxed budget and monetary policy and freedom of regions in the choice of reactions to the second Pandemic Wave.
In favor of revising the quarterly estimates, Rosstat testify the final data on the production of GDP, according to which the production of value added in public administration, health care, science and other services turned out to be noticeably higher than in the results of nine months, Mr. Zasov notes.
Meanwhile, the current annual assessment of the value added is indicated that the main strike of the “coronacrizis” fell on households and industries focused on private domestic demand.
So, the most noticeable decline in the value added is found in household activities as employers and manufacturers of goods and services – by 26%. It follows the activities of hotels and catering, where the decline was at the level of 24%, and closing the top three of the most affected industries of the services of culture and sports (decline by 11%). The relative winnings were the financial and insurance sector (by the end of the year added 7.9%), as well as public administration, ensuring military security and social security, which grew by 2.5%. In industry, health, construction and agriculture, stagnation is found at the end of the year – the main result of the epidemic for them is the lack of growth or falling output.
How the Ministry of Finance summed up the results of the Cove
On noticeable economic losses of the population in crisis testifies to the statistics of the use of GDP. Reducing household expenditures for final consumption amounted to 8.6%. The final consumption of the public administration sector and the service serving household increased by 3.9% compared with 2019, “primarily due to an increase in health expenditures and other activities related to the fight against Pandemic COVID-19, noted in Rosstat. A noticeable contribution to the decline in GDP made and an advanced reduction of imports by 13.7% compared with a less significant decline in exports – by 5.1%, although in the fourth quarter of 2020, as already noted “alongthecoastcottage”, the restoration of imports turned out to be very fast, And he actually compared with the indicator of the corresponding quarter of 2019.
Separate interest causes data on shaft accumulation, which decreased by 4.2% due to the accumulation of fixed capital, including values (minus 6.2%), while the proportion of stocks in the structure of using GDP increased from 1.7% in 2019 to 2 , 1% in 2020. “The increase in the reserves of material working capital increased mainly due to the production reserves in enterprises, the economic activity of which in the conditions of the introduced restrictions decreased,” noted in Rosstat, which testifies to the revaluation of the refurbishment industry, which indicated the surveys of the Gaidar Institute at the end of the year.
“Most entrepreneurs managed to adapt to new conditions and rebuild their work,” Polyna Kryuchkova believes.- An indicator of Russian GDP in 2021 will depend on the implementation of the nationwide economic recovery plan, as well as from vaccination rate “.
At the end of the year, “obvious risks of the epidemic crisis in general economic – judging by the fact that in retail and for payable services based on consumer demand, failure not overcome. January consumption data is not yet fixed explicit improvements, and some growth in production activity in January, which the PMI index is recorded, according to analysts of the center, “had a largely conjunctural nature, as it was mostly due to the extremely weak road trampling on New Year holidays against the background of repeated (not less than five) reduction of foreign New Year’s travels with a tangible growth of internal (for dozens percent for the most popular cities of Russia) “.
December inflation in the poor regions was noticeably higher than in the rich
According to Dmitry Dolgin from ING, further recovery will depend on the ability of the government to improve the mood in the private sector, with which other analysts agree with. “In general, our main concerns are still associated with the consumption and market of labor,” concludes Dmitry Field. As noted by “Kommersant, now citizens are preferred by savings in cash and bank deposits loans and consumption. Oleg Zapov, in turn, does not exclude that the approaching elections will be able to force the state to increase payments to citizens. In any case, the exit scenario from the crisis will largely depend on psychological factors – in the “post-shaped idea” of economic growth will believe or will not believe.