Kevin Rudd on the U.S.-China Trade War
In World Trade War, Russia will perform on the side of Europe and China restrictions, the United States introduced duties against a number of suppliers, including the Russian Federation, China, Turkey, March 23,. April 19, Russia sent a request for consultations on the introduced measures to the WTO, and on May 22, he notified the organization about a possible increase in duties for USA products for $ 537.6 million per year. This damage, according to the document, is calculated by the Russian side on the basis of the introduced 25 percentage of exports of steel from the Russian Federation in the United States ($ 1.5 billion exports) and 10 percent – for export of aluminum ($ 1.6 billion). “$ 537.6 million is the amount within which we have the right to introduce balancing measures. At the first stage, it is less – about $ 93 million, “- reported on Tuesday” Kommersant “in the Ministry of Economy.
As disagreements between the US and the PRC raised the American currency rate
According to Maxim Oreshkina, the list is compiled so as not to damage to Russian consumers and citizens, – it will not be drugs, but will, in particular, construction and road machinery. The source in domestic engineering says that the Russian Federation in this segment “strong positions” in terms of the production of autocrants, pipe-layers and automobile graders and “medium” – in the production of bulldozers, excavators-loaders, tractors-bulldozers and rinks. According to the interlocutor “alongthecoastcottage” in a foreign concern, in the segment of road construction equipment under duties, for example, excavators, but “almost all Caterpillar excavators will bring in the Russian Federation from the Chinese plant”. At the same time, the source “alongthecoastcottage” argues that “the task of the Ministry of Industry is not easy, painful, I think it will not work,” and in 2014, when the sanctions introduced, the trade turnover was very small in comparison with the European, and now “probably And less, the United States of this mosquito bite will not even feel. According to the results of 2017, the largest volume of imports from the United States ($ 3.46 billion) came to the aircraft and spacecraft, subborital and space rockets, more than $ 837 million on vehicles, spare parts ($ 365 million), medicines and medical devices ($ 621 million ).
Other countries have already announced the response measures. China not only appealed to WTO, but also applies increased duties for imports from the United States in the amount of $ 3 billion. The European Union, Canada and Mexico, after Washington spread onto them on steel and aluminum duties from June 1, also published their own lists of raised tariffs. In particular, EU countries agreed to an increase in import duties at € 2.8 billion ($ 3.4 billion). The list includes various types of food (whiskey, orange juice, peanut butter, cranberries and t. P.), metal products and motorcycles. The total damage from US security measures in Brussels is estimated at € 6.4 billion, but the second part of the response restrictions (for another € 3.6 billion) will be introduced either after three years (according to WTO standards), or after solving the WTO arbitrators panel filed by the USA. In Canada, promise to introduce response to $ 12.8 billion, in Mexico – $ 2.9 billion.
US and China promise to punish trade equally
“In accordance with the WTO rules, the countries affected by the unjustified trade restrictions of the country have the right to introduce retaliatory measures, without waiting for the results of the consideration of their appeals to the WTO, – notes the Crowner of the Economic Theory of IMEMO RAS, Sergey Afonsev.- as applied to American duties on steel and aluminum a few days ago, India has already arrived, the corresponding EU decision is expected. Russia goes in the world trend “. If the United States desires, to join the dialogue, the parties will be able to discuss how much mutual damage is proportioned, however, such an assessment may take two or three years, the expert indicates.
In the same Washington on Tuesday, announced a new turn of trading confrontation with China. US President Donald Trump instructed to determine the list of Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion for the introduction of additional fees in 10% in case the PRC will respond to the promised earlier increase in US duties covering the import of $ 50 billion. Recall, last Friday the United States announced the introduction from July 6 duties to import 818 positions in total $ 34 billion. The Chinese side stated that he would answer symmetrically, having prepared duties on the same amount of 545 positions (in the list – electrocars, whiskey, soybeans). On Tuesday, China declared readiness to introduce “extensive” measures in response to a new threat. However, Beijing is unlikely to be able to publish a response list of American goods for new restrictions: exports of goods from China in the United States in 2017 amounted to $ 505.6 billion, supplies from the United States to China – only $ 130.4 billion. In the business council of the two countries, however, fear that restrictions may affect the activities of American companies in the PRC – in particular, issuing licenses.
According to Oxford Economics, the actual increase in duties in a volume of $ 200 billion on both sides will lead to a slowdown in the American economy by 0.3% of GDP next year. At the same time, according to PETERSON INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS, already declared duties of $ 34 billion will mainly increase costs for international companies working in China, and not actually Chinese companies.
As the United States promised China to cover supply duties for $ 200 billion
“The trading war between the United States and China is quite a real threat. To date, the readiness of both parties to raise rates, increasing duties and spreading them to new groups of goods. Where the limits of such an escalation and whether they are generally a big question, “says Sergey Afonsev. According to the expert, this is a fundamentally new situation in world trade, since previously the United States advocated the maintenance of the liberal regime of world trade regulation. However, as David Meyer from Julius Baer indicates, the lack of economic justification for new duties supports the view that these measures are caused by internal political motifs. In the bank expect to continue trade disputes at least until November, when intermediate elections will be held in the United States, and the scenario of unfolding a full-fledged trade war. We also note that both China and the EU, and Russia in recent years have not been interested in increasing the protectionist “protection” of markets from exports, and the position of the new US administration is standard – a sharp provocation of disputes (in this case – raising tariff) and then the proposal of negotiations. Judging by the rates of increasing duties, the idea of universal negotiations is the parties to come up by the winter of 2018 or early 2019.